I was red and made a big mistake here, and it probably cost me the match. I know my take point is 19.8 percent, and I know that the value of gammons is 1.0. I estimated my wins at 40 percent, and I was right on. But I estimated gammons at 20 percent. Using my method of calculating takes, I subtracted 20 from 40 and came up with a bare take. I looked at this a long time and really thought I would anchor most of the time and not get gammoned so much. I was wrong. The gammon rate here is 30 percent making this a big drop.
Since I was on the boarder, and playing a very good player (Bob Steen) I decided to take.
In the actual game, I didn't get gammoned, but I still lost the game and then the match.