2010-05-04 Match Cube/Answer

I was red and made a big mistake here, and it probably cost me the match.  I know my take point is 19.8 percent, and I know that the value of gammons is 1.0.  I estimated my wins at 40 percent, and I was right on.  But I estimated gammons at 20 percent.  Using my method of calculating takes, I subtracted 20 from 40 and came up with a bare take.  I looked at this a long time and really thought I would anchor most of the time and not get gammoned so much.  I was wrong.  The gammon rate here is 30 percent making this a big drop.

Since I was on the boarder, and playing a very good player (Bob Steen) I decided to take.

In the actual game, I didn't get gammoned, but I still lost the game and then the match. 

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