2010-05-10 Match Play/Answer

In this case you don't hit.  But it wouldn't take much to make it very right to hit.  For example, if you moved Red spare checker on his 1 point to his 6 point, it would then be right to hit and a blunder not to hit.  These positions are very sensitive to pip count, and also sensitive to "adjusted" pip count.  It not only matters how many pips you are ahead after the roll, but distribution can play a major role in determining just how many times red will win the race and how many times white will win the race if you don't hit.

I know everyone would like a "rule of thumb" they can hang their hat on, and I will give you one.  If you are ahead about 10 percent or more you are generally better off not hitting.  But again, that depends on distribution; how good your opponent's board is (if he's got 2 blots in his board, getting hit might be a good thing!), and the adjusted pip count.  (If you don't know how to "adjust" pip counts, you just found out something you don't know that you should research.)