2010-06-02 Match Play/Answer

Make the 2 point.  With a stronger board, you stand to gain if this game develops into a mutual-hitting game, and that looks like where it's going.

Here are some excellent points to consider made by Perry:

The key to understanding this position is what impact ensuing comparative board strength has in the hit on the mid variation.

 

1.      Red makes the 5 point board:

A.     When Red  gets hit on his mid with an ace, the immediate indirect return hits, there rate to be a few for sure, are super strong.

B.      Yellow’s 4 point board permits entry by Red after being hit 20/36 except if hit by 6-6.

C.     Red’s hit incoming checker creates contact value for Red even though Red loses racing value.    Yellow may leave a shot in his inner board or bear in more awkwardly eventually leading to a better outfield shot.

D.      Yellow only has a 4 point board compared to 5 for Red so Yellow’s hits don’t rate to be as potent.

E.      Red may come out to the bar point anchor and re-circulate to add attacking, hitting or point making potential to the rest of his forces.

F.      Red may hit or point on the Yellow checker in his own inner board and become a huge favorite when this takes place. It makes coming out for Yellow more difficult and coming back in more difficult when hit.

G.     If Yellow escapes from the 24, a hit by Red in the outfield will make Red a huge favorite.

H.     Red gets gammoned 3% less, 10% vs 13% , and gammons Yellow 3% more, 14% to 17% (xg+).

 

2.      How would the position have to change to play safe from the mid instead of making the 2 point?

Easy.  Just give yellow a 5 point board and the right play is 13/6. That difference tells the whole story of why risking a hit 33% of the time is right.




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