2010-06-23 Money Cube/Answer

It is too good to double.  Red should play on and see what happens.  It's true that Red doesn't win very many gammons, but since gammons are worth half as much as winning (the Gammon Value is .5), you need to win twice as many gammons are there are losses to play on.

Now, if you look at the evaluation below, it DOES NOT APPEAR to be the case here.  Red wins gammons 3.31 percent of the time, but White wins the game 1.97%.  So it's not twice as many gammons as wins.  So something's wrong, isn't it?

What's wrong is that the winning chances shown reflect "Cubeless Equity," meaning that is the win/loss percentage IF THERE WERE NOT CUBE.  But Red holds the cube, and in fact, he will not lose any games.  Even if White comes in right away and rolls 6-6, Red can still double White out and win, so in fact the wins for White are really zero.