2010-07-04 Novi /Answer

When you have the choice between hitting and making a point, especially when gammons matter, hitting is often the right choice.  But when making the point gives you a 5-prime and a very strong position, the decision becomes tougher and many people get sidetracked on their goals.  John made the right play, however, and that was hitting.

Simply put, you are a pretty big favorite to win with either play, but hitting wins enough more gammons to be worth it.