2010-07-05 Match Cube/Answer

As you can see from the evaluation below, it is a big double, and a boarderline take.  If you do your estimates right, using 23 percent as your take point and valuing gammons at .5, you will see that it's very, very close.

So, what do you do when it's very close?  You could flip a coin....if you win, that could really frost your opponent!  And if you lose, you can just blame fate.

But there is a better way...another factor that you should consider that can help you make the decision:  difficulty of play.   Is this a position that if you take, you would have a quite difficult time playing correctly?  If so, be more inclined to drop.  Of is it a position that would be much harder for your opponent to play?  If so, be more inclined to take. 

You see, the computer assumes that both parties will make every checker and cube decision going forward PERFECTLY.  That's not a reasonable expectation going forward. 

In this particular position, White's play, at least for the next few rolls, will be pretty simple...he either comes in and anchors or he doesn't.  But Red is likely to have many tough decisions...whether to hit or make a point, whether to come up or bring more ammunition into the zone.  Red might have to decide when to stop blitzing and start trying to prime instead.  It wouldn't be unusual to see Red making many mistakes here...so if i were White, that would sway me to take the cube.