2010-07-07 4-1 Answer

Usually, when the problem is that you have to leave a shot, make the play that leaves the fewest shots.   This is no exception.  If you hit and make the 11 point there are 10 shots.  Of course, hitting has other advantages as, if you get away with it, it's easier to bring home the rest of your checkers in the outfield and the potential to make your 9 point is also a plus.  Any other play, however, leaves at least 3 more shots and Red really doesn't want to get hit.