2010-07-21 Match Cube/Answer

This is a clear double and a clear take.  Most people see why this is a double right away...Red is up in the race, he might not leave a shot the next time, and even if he leaves a shot, White has to hit it.  For all of those reasons, there are many players who will drop this cube.

So how can we tell, over the board, that this is a take?

It's a combination of hitting and racing chances.

 

Race:  Red has more wastage so add a pip to his total making it 76-90.  Kleinman's formula gives you about 16% cubeless chances with that deficit.

 

Hitting:  Red leaves a shot with 17 numbers, you hit about a third and win most of those.  Not all his other 19 numbers bring everyone home safely -- 51,41,31,21, and 11 cause Red to waste more in his home board and you still might get a shot.  Hitting one of these later shots will very likely be a winner for you since you will have at least covered your 4-pt by then.

 

Adds up to a clear take.  If you give yourself around 5 wins in 36 games from hitting and 16% of the other 31, that comes to around 28% wins altogether.  Gammons do not appear to be much of a factor, so your net equity is pretty close to that 28 percent, andth sides  that's exactly with the XG evaluation below shows.


Knowing that your have 28 percent is only half the battle...you have to know what your take point is.  Even if you are not able to figure take points exactly, you can pretty much assume that when both players need more than 5 points to win the match, the take point on the initial cube is somewhere close to a money game, and that's about 21.5 percent...so here you can see that it is a clear take.


What about the cube?  Red simply has too many market losers not to double here.


(Thanks to John O'Hagan and Perry Gartner for help with the above analysis.)







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