2010-08-02 Match Play Answer

I think the most interesting thing about this play is that the best play is one I didn't even consider, and that's leaving a blot on the 13 point.  The concept of clearing the 8 point makes sense as this will be an important point to clear later, so getting if over with now has some real merit.  That was xgroller+ choice before the rollout, and here is what John O'Hagan has to say about this play:

Oppt has a well-timed 2-5 game so you're not that big a fav no matter how you play this roll.  You rate to leave at least one game-winning direct shot before this game is over, so there's a lot to be said for paying now with XG's recommended play.  The clearing play clears your problem point (the 8-point), creates lots of spares on the 6 & 9 pts, and leaves the shot While White's still has a blot in his board.  Even if White rolls a hit and cover joker, you're far from dead.  I think the RO will confirm XG's choice.