2010-08-17 Cube/Answer

Here are comments from David Rockwell and then MCG:

Be careful about taking the cube with low anchor positions when there are few points left to clear.  Gammon risk is likely to be high.
 
In this position, you will get a shot on several rolls containing a 2 along with a few other numbers which leave blots. This risk is likely to remain high until the outer point is cleared.  The stack on the ace point along with the five point prime ready to contain a checker mean that a hit is probably good enough to win.  

 

There are few market losers in this position since shot equity is likely to remain next turn.  Redoubling is a small error.

 

No redouble / Take


MCG added the following observation:

Part of the problem is that so many of white's losses are gammons, as soon as Red leaves a shot, White may well have a redouble that essentially wipes out the gammons and gives him a reasonable chance to win the match.



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