2010-08-26 DMP 1-1/Answer

Analysis by David Rockwell.

Most people will miss the correct play here, and simply move checkers around in the outfield.  Most of the time is it better to have your higher points covered.  When red plays well, white can win approximately 8.5%.  It is often surprising how often someone can win when it looks like they are getting crushed. 


If red plays poorly, white can win considerably more, around 12%.  That's how often white can win with a potential anchor on the three point.  Red needs to take advantage of this joker roll and switch points, leaving the five point open instead.  It is easier to fight for the five point than the three point.  And, if white can manage to make the five point anchor, it won't yield as many wins as the three anchor would.  A sleeply play in the outfield here misses the chance to reduce losses by almost a third.