2010-08-29 Crawford/Answer

Commentary by David Rockwell:



Red to play 41





It is correct to hit and bring a spare to the bar point.



When I first looked at this position, I saw two possible reasons for the hitting play rather than making the four anchor.


1.  Hitting makes a large difference in the race.


2.  Red's position is stripped.  There's a need to play 22-18 to get the back checkers moving. 


One can often get information about the crucial "why" question by checking a similar position or a different roll in the same position.  So, I did a rollout of 42.  Red can't hit, but has a choice between the four anchor and playing 22-18.



Making the four anchor is better by a small amount.  Therefore, I concluded that the primary reason that hitting is correct in the original position is its effect on the race.