2010-09-05 DMP 6-1/Answer

Don't feel bad if you missed this play...two Giants i showed it to also missed it.

Analysis by Stick:

The first thing I thought when I looked at this position is 'my opponent is fragile' or in Chuck Bower lingo making your opponent sound like some diseased orphan, 'he has tmp'.  (too many points)  When you see your opponent in this sort of position and you have a chance to hit something often many of his entering rolls will be horrors.  Here for example if you decide to go with the hitting play that keeps the broken 5 prime of 8/7 8/2* if your opponent enter with [61 63 43 41 31] it really damages his position.  A lot of the other entering numbers are not that good either even if they do hit the blot.

You may have thought "but I'm up in the race, it's dmp, shouldn't I race!?"  In general yes, leaving blots for no reason when you're ahead by this much at dmp is frowned upon.  Notice I said 'for no reason'.  Here we already noted we have good reason.  We want to crack our opponent's position.  In doing so we only give him 5s to escape as we keep the broken prime whereas without hitting he has 4s and 5s to escape and keep his forward position in tact.

Extremegammon eval is below: