4-20-10 Match Cube/Answer

As you can see below, this is no double/take.

Many people will double this, but the take point here (using the new Rockwell-Kazaross MET) is around 19 percent, and as you can see, Black has 30% here.  So it's a long way from the take point, and in a straight race, that means it is unlikely that White has a lot of "market losers."  That means there are not a lot of sequences where White rolls well and Black rolls poorly and then it would be a double and a drop.  So if White is likely to get a take next roll, why risk giving the cube here?

And what kind of risk is it, really, when he's going to win 69% of the time?  Well, if you look right below those numbers you will see that this is "cubeless equity."   That means that White will win 69 percent of the time IF THERE WERE NO CUBE IN PLAY.  And if White gives the cube to black, he will have to get all of his checkers off before Black gets all of his checkers off, in order to win.  But Black can win much easier. 

Black doesn't have to get all of his checkers off first to win.  Because he is holding the cube, all he has to do is get far enough in the lead so that he can redouble an win.  Now, sometimes when Black redoubles White will still have a take, but in those cases White will be a pretty good favorite to win the game and the match. 

So at this score, White has the potential for what we call an "efficient" redouble--one where he really doesn't care if Black takes or drops...either way he's in great shape in this match.  And when you opponent can have an efficient recube, you have to be much more careful about giving the cube.


Comments