5-2 answer

I not only made the wrong play here, I wasn't sure why it was wrong, so I sent it to my personal coach, Perry Gartner for an explanation as to why it is right to keep my opponent's bar point here.

This is Perry's analysis:

When you leave the bar now you give 7 shots, the hits make you an underdog( in the 40's). If you stay now and then leave the bar on you next turn with the 8 made (6-1,6-2, 6-4, 6-5, 8 numbers, after let's say your opponent rolls 4-1) and get hit with the 17 shots, you remain a favorite (in the 50's). So you get hit 8 x 17= 136/1296 compared to 7 x 36=252. You can' clear all the time so you do leave more shots but there is a big difference between 136 and 252, but that's not the whole story. If you make the 4 or 3 before you leave a 17 number shot your equity does not plunge nearly as much after being hit. Just look at the 2 opponents checkers on your 1 point and the one in the air and think about how long it will take to transverse your prime after getting hit now compared to when having made the 8 or after that when you manage to make an additional inner point. In fact, on your next roll you will likely have 26 numbers that either make an inner point or a number that moves both at the same time from the bar point(3's,4's and 5's). That's a huge incentive not to pay now. The point is your game is prone to improve, not deteriorate. By delaying, you also squeeze your opponent in some variations ( where the 3rd checker remains behind your prime, as he only has on spare to play from the mid and one on the 6 point.

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