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DMP 2-1 Answer

I (Phil) played 20/18, 5-4 and it was a blunder.   The right play is the quiet play--5/2.  I asked Perry why, and you can read his explanation below:

 This is one of those rare positions where your play gives your opponent 36 constructive numbers. When you keep your anchor some 4’s and 5’s open a third outside point as a potential escape hatch. There are big swings on 5-5, 4-4 and 3-3. 4-3 plays significantly worse as well.

After your play many numbers hit the checker on the 18 meaning you need to focus on getting 2 checkers out. With 2 back you create the more difficult variations for you where 2 need to be extracted.

You are much better off if you can run with one later beyond the reach of the army in front of you and then only one is in direct danger. The escaping one probably only subject to indirects and those hits may come with Red still having a blot in his inner board. In some variations leaving your lone blot on the 20 point, when you escape with the other one, will dupe the 6’s needed to come out and hit on the 20, is another factor.