As you can see from the ExtremeGammon eval below, this is a big double.  Yes, the pip count says you are down 3 pips, but a few years ago I learned the Keith Count, and that adjusts for distribution.  Red's distribution is terrible with many checkers on the 1 and 2 point and the open 3 and 4 point.

If you use the Keith Count you are well ahead in the race.  Scroll down for the Keith Count.

Keith Count

Take basic count and add

2 pips for ea checker more than 1 on ace

1 pip for ea checker more than 1 on 2

1 pip for ea checker more than 3 on 3

1 pip for empty 4, 5 or 6

 

Player on roll increases count by 1/7 round

Down.  Double if count is better by no more

than 4; redouble by no more than 3; take if

doubler’s count exceeds your by at least 2.

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