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Maybe Not So Complicated

Red is only about a 54 percent favorite to win this game, yet ExtremeGammon tells us it is right to double here.  The answer is clear--gammons.  Red must double so that the gammons win him the game.  The value of a gammon for Red, after turning the cube, is 1.0...or in layman's terms, it's every bit as important as just winning or losing a single game.  When you are 4away from winning and your opponent is 2away, it's right to turn the cube as soon as there is a hint of gammons.

White has a take simply because if he can just win the game, he wins the match.