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Match Cube/Answer

Here is a game where blue is not even a favorite to win, yet it's a clear double.  Who says match play isn't complicated.  At this score, Blue has little to lose.  If he doesn't double and loses a point, he is only 15 percent to win the match, so if he doubles and he is wrong, he's only thrown away 15 percent.

But what if things go well?  He might win the game and 2 points, and then he is 40 percent to win the match.
He might even win a gammon...22 percent of the time in fact, and that would put him in the lead..in fact, it would make him a 68 percent favorite.

The big problem is if he doesn't double and roll well...he's lost his market...meaning he will only win 1 point instead of 2 or 4. 

home:  http://www.simborgbackgammonlessons.com/