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Two Choices/Answer

As is often the case, we don't have a choice between two great plays, but we have to choose which play is least bad.  At this score, and in this position, Red is pretty desperate for a win.  Gammons don't matter, so that eliminates some of the risks of coming off the 23 point.  As a matter of fact, in a money game or at scores where gammons matter, you are pretty much forced to keep the 2 point in order to reduce the gammon risks.  But in this situations, where all you care about is the most wins, it's best to run from the 23 point.  You simply get more shots that way.  EVEN IF Blue points on the 2 point on his next roll, you might still anchor on the ace point.

As you can see below from the ExtremGammon xgRoller+ eval, with the better play you only win 13.5 percent of the time, but that's a lot more than 9.2 percent with play B.

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