Match Cube/Answer

Comments by John O'Hagan:

Per the Woolsey rule, Red should first ask if he's sure Blue has a take.  Let's see.  My OTB estimates are that Blue's basic 2-cube takepoint (ignoring g's and recube vig) is around 29% ATS, the 2-cube gammon values actually favor the leader ATS by something like 65% to 60%, and the leader's 4-cube takepoint ATS is around 27% plus around 75% of the trailer's gammon chances.


So let's see what adjustments to the 29% takepoint we should make for the gammon and recube factors.  First the gammon factor:  It should be clear that Red wins more gammons than in the opening position and that Blue wins less.  Red has the bigger board, fewer men back, is split to the 20-point, and Blue has a checker on the roof.  Since the side on roll in the opening position wins around 14% gammons, we can safely conclude that Red/Blue win more/less than 14% gammons in this position. Gammon chances are usually tough to estimate but I'd guess they're around 25%/8% for Red/Blue which raises the takepoint from 29% to a little over 40%.  Recube vig is usually worth about 70% of the product of Blue's gammon-adjusted takepoint (40% here) and Red's 4-cube takepoint (27%+ 75% of Black's gammon chances). I'll guess that Blue will, on average, have around 10% gammon chances when he recubes which raises Red's 4-cube takepoint to around 35%.  So 70% of 40% x 35% is around 10% which lowers Blue's takepoint to around 30%. 


Can Blue win 30% from here?  I think so.  He's got an anchor, he's made his 7-point, and has no men out of play.  I'd take as Blue.


Should Red send it over?  I think so.  One of the main considerations when to think about when you believe your opponent has a take is to look at market losers.  If you don't have many market losers, you don't lose much by waiting to double, and if you have too many market losers, you could lose a lot by waiting.  In this position, there are clearly enough big market losing sequences on tap and Red shouldn't be overly concerned about being offered a gammonish 4-cube.


An XG rollout confirmed that double/take is the correct cube action in this position.