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Match Play/Answer

As you can see below, the right play is to split those outside checkers.  That's a play that will appear to be very dangerous, and in situations where gammons cost you, it is, but at this score, gammons don't matter (your opponent only needs 2 points and the cube is at 2).  The real question to ask here is:  "How am I going to win this game?"  Knowing your "game plan" is essential to any checker play.  If you play "safe" you make it much easier for Red to bring his checkers home without the risk of leaving shots.  At best you might get one more single shot at Red's last checker if you play safe.  By splitting, you are forcing the issue.  Yes, there are some jokers that hit and cover, but many other rolls give you a shot even if you get hit.