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4-3 Money Game/Answer

Stick and I were giving a lesson last week on playing and defending back games when Stick brought out this position.  The student and I debated as to whether or not to hit, and how to best play the position.  We knew that Red was in trouble, as it appeared that Blue had pretty good timing for this back game, and finally, we asked Stick what his play was. 

When Stick said he would hit and play 4/1 I dropped my mouse.  He then suggested we first try 3 ply, and three ply LAUGHED AT STICK and said his play was about a 14 percent error...huge blunder.  Then, Stick suggested we give XGRoller + a try, and when we did, it said that Stick's play was right!

What a testimonial to both Stick and to XGR+, and I doubt many humans would find this play over the board (in fact, I showed it to a few humans, including some Giants, who admitted they would not have made that play but they can certainly see the beauty of it).

As always, when plays are not clear and controversial, I suggested we do a long rollout, and Stick said he was not confident a 3 ply rollout would give us the right answer, as 3 ply clearly got this play wrong.  But I did the rollout anyway, and as you can see below, it confirmed XGR+ and Stick, and with almost the exact same numbers.

A play like this takes a real understanding of back games and timing.  The entire goal here is to break down Blue's timing, and XGR+ and Stick came up with a most ingenious way to do it.