Stick No. 11/Answer

This position I did not bother to roll out because I think I have a firm understanding of it and I don't completely trust bot rollouts of backgame positions anyway. 

To my knowledge nobody has tried to cover backgames completely in a public forum be it books or magazines or online forums or articles.  One thing that most students of the games realize though is how potentially weak the 20-21 backgame can be.  (sometimes referred to as a 5-4 backgame)  In general it's because your opponent will already have the made 6pt and 8pt from the start of the game and often another outfield point, either the 7pt or the 9pt, so bringing the position home against two anchors that are so far advanced is not all that hard.

Here you dislike passing up making the 20pt anchor because now your opponent will probably eventually make it as he'll have roll after roll to roll his good rolls [11 31 41 44 22 33 43]  He will not hesitate to leave the 5 shot in return for making his 5 point since hitting it would cost you your anchor and you aren't likely to be anywhere near read to contain one lone checker.  You may dislike not anchoring up high because of the above reasoning but you should absolutely hate not making 23pt anchor and maintaining that long term equity.  You're down a good number of pips for a possible backgame and with your opponent's open 3pt and 5pt he may have long term awkwardness issues.  Your opponent also already has two checkers sucked to the ace point which is the death trap when trying to play against a backgame.  He won't be able to prime you at all, you can play as freely as you like to build your board, keep your timing, and hit at the opportune moment. 

Making the 23pt anchor in this position is clear to me.

Evaluation below: