Stick Position No. 6 / Answer

Good news is you should be able to narrow this down to two plays quickly.  Running is no good as it leaves your opponent to much room to breathe when you should be putting the clamp down on him.  Now your four is 'forced', 6/2*, hitting your opponent off the front of the prime as is the standard in such positions.  After this you have to make the tough choice between splitting off the anchor and hitting the other checker in your home board.

If you set up the hit and split off the anchor play you'll notice 5s are duplicated to hit and escape but it's not what I'd consider big duplication.  You still have sixes to escape also or perhaps hit loose on your ace point next turn.  You also have aces which will shift hit from the 2pt to the 1pt.  This is my dmp play meaning I realize now all I'm trying to guesstimate is does hitting both checkers gain enough gammons to outweigh my single wins from the hit and split?

I agonized over this for a minute because hitting both duplicates my 5s and 6s to hit and escape.  If my opponent fans, 16/36 times, I will also have aces to make a 5pt board by playing 2/1.  If my opponent hits me off my ace point it's no big deal yet, at least he didn't come in at the edge of my prime.  I still may be able to come in and make the prime before he is able to hit/enter his other checker.  Maybe he'll enter both on the ace point…maybe maybe maybe. 

I felt there were enough extra wins by hitting both, giving him 16 numbers to fan, and freezing his 3rd blot to be picked up at the opportune time if it should happen to arise that hitting two was correct and my OtB play.  As you can see according to the rollout something that I didn't exactly take into account makes hitting two correct.  I win ~4.8% extra gammons by hitting both and I forfeit 2.6% single wins versus the other play.  The tradeoff should be about 2-1 to make hitting both correct, why then is it correct here?  Check out the gammons lost column for me.  I lose almost a percent less gammons by hitting both because I have one less blot and I don't leave the anchor.  I didn't really think about it at the time and if I had I would have thought the gammons lost were close enough to call it a wash.  Goes to show you paying attention to every detail can't hurt.

extremeGammon rollout below: